From Asia-Pacific to the Americas and Europe, several major economies will choose new governments or renew fragile coalitions throughout 2026. For compliance professionals, elections shape the regulatory climate organisations must operate in for years afterwards.

A change in government frequently means a shift in enforcement appetite, supervisory expectations, budget priorities, sanctions policy, labour protections, ESG reporting rules, data governance, and anti-corruption regimes. More progressive or left-leaning administrations tend to introduce stronger workplace protections, environmental requirements, reporting duties, and consumer safeguards. More conservative governments often emphasise deregulation, industry autonomy, and enforcement targeted at national-security risks rather than corporate governance.

Yet the picture is more complex. In some jurisdictions, political instability slows regulatory reform rather than accelerates it. The United States is a clear example: despite strong ideological divides, legislative gridlock, a fractious House of Representatives, and repeated threats of government shutdowns have often resulted in less federal regulatory movement, leaving states and regulators to take the lead instead. In parts of Asia-Pacific, caretaker governments, fragile coalitions and post-protest transitions may bring unpredictability rather than a clear shift toward expansion or rollback of compliance obligations.

Bangladesh: A democratic reset with high regulatory uncertainty

Bangladesh is entering its most significant political transition in more than a decade. Following mass protests and the removal of the long-dominant Awami League leadership, the interim government has announced national elections for early 2026. The political direction of the next government remains entirely open, and the regulatory impact could be substantial.

For compliance teams operating in or with Bangladesh, this period introduces uncertainty in several areas. Labour rights enforcement, anti-corruption priorities and export-sector regulation could all shift rapidly depending on which bloc emerges as dominant. Some parties advocate stronger worker protections and more robust oversight in the textiles and manufacturing sectors; others prioritise economic liberalisation and reduced regulatory barriers to investment. International businesses should prepare for potential reforms to due diligence expectations, supply-chain auditing, and engagement with state agencies.

The country’s AML/CTF posture may also change. Political instability tends to attract greater scrutiny from international standard-setters, and incoming officials may seek to demonstrate cooperation by tightening cross-border reporting or enforcement.

Thailand: Continuous political flux and a fragile coalition landscape

Thailand is expected to dissolve parliament by early 2026, with elections likely shortly afterwards. The past decade has seen repeated leadership changes, court-ordered dismissals of prime ministers, and unstable coalitions, all of which complicate long-term compliance planning.

From a regulatory perspective, Thailand’s direction can swing meaningfully depending on coalition composition. A more progressive bloc may push for stronger anti-corruption enforcement, environmental oversight and workplace reforms, while conservative coalitions tend to prioritise economic growth and lighter regulatory touch. Companies should anticipate policy volatility regardless of who wins, particularly in areas such as foreign investment rules, ESG reporting, and digital-platform regulation, which have shifted with every recent administration.

For compliance teams managing regional operations, the best strategy for 2026 is scenario-based preparedness, especially for supply-chain controls, AML enforcement shifts and potential changes in labour-rights inspections.

Israel: Heading toward a potential reset?

Israel must hold an election by October 2026, though it could come much earlier given the current government’s fractious position following the conclusion of a challenging two years of conflict. A combination of political fragmentation, challenges in coalition cohesion and widespread public dissatisfaction suggests that a change in government is a real possibility.

A new Israeli administration could reshape many aspects of compliance-relevant policy. Data protection, workplace regulation, consumer rights, anti-corruption enforcement, cybersecurity legislation and even sanctions policy have all been areas of active debate. Additionally, Israel’s alignment with global AI governance frameworks, whistleblowing rules and ESG standards may accelerate or slow depending on the next coalition’s ideological composition.

Organisations with significant Israeli operations should model divergent political scenarios and anticipate regulatory movement concentrated in public-sector digital transformation, AML enforcement, and workplace conduct compliance, where legislative proposals have been waiting for political stability to progress.

New Zealand: Competitive outlook with a watch-list on privacy and ESG

New Zealand’s election is due by late 2026, with a centre-right three-party coalition currently governing. While New Zealand often retains governments for multiple terms, the present coalition is more ideologically diverse than usual, and internal differences on issues such as emissions, employment rights and data protection could open the door to a shift.

From a compliance standpoint, New Zealand is globally aligned with strong privacy, AML, environmental and workplace standards. A change of government would not erase these frameworks, but it could influence the pace of reform. A centre-left government would likely expand reporting requirements related to climate risk and worker protections, while a more conservative shift could temper ESG-related mandates and reduce regulatory burdens, particularly for SMEs.

Compliance teams should watch for policy acceleration around AI governance, whistleblowing protections and occupational health and safety modernisation, all of which have been identified as priority reform areas regardless of political outcome.

Brazil: A polarised race with major implications for ESG, anti-corruption and labour regulation

Brazil will hold presidential and congressional elections in October 2026. The political environment remains polarised, and the regulatory implications of either direction are considerable.

A continuation of the current administration would likely reinforce environmental enforcement, corporate transparency rules and ESG-related reporting, especially in sectors linked to deforestation risk. Labour-rights inspections and anti-corruption efforts, which have regained momentum in recent years, would also likely continue.

A shift back to a conservative government could alter this trajectory by prioritising deregulation, reducing environmental penalties, and reshaping corporate reporting requirements. Such a shift would have immediate implications for supply-chain audits, human-rights due diligence, sustainability disclosures and enforcement risk for multinationals operating in Brazil.

Organisations should anticipate policy divergence in areas such as beneficial-ownership transparency, procurement compliance and anticorruption cooperation with international partners.

Colombia: A possible return to the centre

Colombia’s 2026 elections carry significant compliance relevance due to ongoing reforms in tax, labour, data protection, and AML enforcement. The governing left coalition faces strong political headwinds, and business-sector anxiety around proposed labour and pension reforms has been intense.

A change of government could accelerate pro-business regulatory reforms and recalibrate labour-market rules, while a continuation of the current administration may intensify oversight on workplace rights, supply-chain human-rights due diligence and corporate tax structuring. Compliance officers should also monitor Colombia’s alignment with FATF recommendations, which could tighten cross-border reporting obligations.

Peru: A high-probability reset amid political volatility

Peru heads to the polls in April 2026 in a climate of extreme political dissatisfaction. The sitting government has low public approval, and the likelihood of change is high.

For compliance teams, Peru’s volatility raises two specific risks. First, regulatory agendas can shift quickly, especially around mining oversight, anti-corruption enforcement and environmental permitting. Second, the country’s AML system is under sustained international scrutiny, and incoming governments often sharpen enforcement to demonstrate stability.

International businesses should ensure their Peru-related supply-chain, due-diligence and monitoring frameworks are adaptable to rapid policy swings.

United States: Midterm volatility and the compliance impact of gridlock

The United States will not elect a president in 2026, but the midterm elections will determine control of Congress, and with it, the federal regulatory environment for the following two years. Every seat in the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate will be contested.

The past two years in Washington have been defined by political gridlock. A divided Congress has struggled to pass major legislation, leading to repeated budget stand-offs, government shutdowns and stalled attempts at comprehensive federal rules on areas such as data privacy, AI governance and ESG disclosures. As a result, regulatory movement has largely shifted to federal agencies and individual states, creating a fragmented and unpredictable compliance landscape.

The outlook for 2027 following the mid term elections in November 2026 depends heavily on the balance of power. If Republicans retain only a slim majority as they do now, the House is likely to remain fractious, with internal divisions slowing any substantial legislative agenda and continuing the trend of regulatory uncertainty. Agencies may face tighter budgets and greater political scrutiny, reducing capacity for ambitious enforcement. If Democrats gain control, the pace of reform could accelerate, with renewed attempts at federal privacy laws, expanded protections for workers and consumers, and stronger funding for regulators such as the SEC, FTC and FinCEN. 

For multinational firms, continued reliance on states (for example in privacy or ESG regulation) becomes more likely, as federal movement stalls. That means increased compliance fragmentation rather than centralised harmonisation.

On the compliance-risk front, a slim majority also means that shifts can happen rapidly e.g., a few defections can block legislation or reverse agenda items. Compliance teams should plan for swings and fallback positions.

Europe: Policy direction could shift, even without extremes

Several European countries will hold significant elections in 2026, and many could reshape ESG, data protection, consumer-rights and anti-corruption laws. However the bloc is still reeling from the 2024 EU parliament elections which delivered a stronger right wing which is currently going through a severe deregulation agenda. The following national elections are unlikely to change that, and the next EU parliament election is not until 2029.

In Sweden, polling suggests a potential move back to a centre-left government. This would likely accelerate climate-related disclosures, social-governance reporting and workplace protections. Denmark may experience similar shifts depending on coalition dynamics, although its overall regulatory approach tends to remain stable regardless of which bloc is in power.

Hungary’s 2026 election will be closely watched due to EU pressure on rule-of-law compliance. A weakened ruling party or a stronger opposition presence could influence procurement rules, AML supervision and corporate transparency expectations, even if a full change of government is unlikely.

Compliance teams operating in Europe should track how these elections intersect with incoming EU-wide obligations, including CSDDD, AI governance, cyber resilience and whistleblowing standards. However the deregulation agenda of the current EU parliament is likely to continue. 

Asia-Pacific: Smaller but still relevant elections

Several smaller or single-party systems in Asia-Pacific will also hold elections in 2026. While these are unlikely to produce meaningful changes in political direction, they matter for organisations monitoring regulatory stability.

Vietnam’s one-party election will not alter the governing structure, but internal party dynamics may influence the pace of digital regulation, data-localisation enforcement and cybersecurity law implementation. Laos is in a similar position, with continuity expected but incremental tightening possible in AML supervision and state-sector governance. Fiji may see moderately competitive elections, with potential shifts in foreign-investment and environmental compliance rules depending on coalition outcomes.

Although these elections are unlikely to trigger dramatic regulatory change, they are important signals for risk assessments, supply-chain mapping and country-level compliance forecasting.

Major election schedule for 2026

January 2026

• 15 January – Uganda: Presidential and parliamentary elections. Date formally set by the Electoral Commission for 15 January 2026.

   

• Early 2026 – Portugal: Presidential election due in early 2026 when Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa’s term ends (exact polling day still to be confirmed).

February 2026

• Laos – Parliamentary election (by February): National Assembly elections are due by February 2026; the exact polling day has not yet been announced, but preparations and a national election committee are already in place.

   

March 2026

• 15 March – Vietnam: Elections to the 16th National Assembly and People’s Councils at all levels set for Sunday 15 March 2026.

   

• 29 March – Thailand (expected): General election expected on 29 March 2026; government and media reporting point to this date, although the Election Commission has not yet issued the formal writ.

   

April 2026

• 12 April – Hungary (expected): Parliamentary election anticipated for 12 April 2026 (Easter-after Sunday); the date has been widely signalled by the government but still awaits formal proclamation by the president.

   

• 12 April – Peru: General elections currently scheduled for 12 April 2026 with the usual possibility of a second round later if needed.

   

May 2026

• 31 May – Colombia: First round of the presidential election is scheduled for 31 May 2026, with a second round likely in June if no candidate reaches 50%.

   

June 2026

• Early June – Ethiopia (tentative): Federal and regional elections currently planned for early June 2026 (often cited as around 1 June), but this remains politically and logistically fragile and could still move.

   

• By June – Algeria (legislative): The next legislative elections must be held by mid-2026; current guidance suggests a first-half-2026 window, but no specific month is confirmed yet.

   

August 2026

• 7 August – Fiji (expected): Local media and the Fijian Elections Office indicate the general election is expected on 7 August 2026, though legally it can be held any time between June 2026 and February 2027, so this remains indicative rather than final.

   

• 13 August – Zambia: General elections (president and National Assembly) scheduled for 13 August 2026, following the standard five-year cycle.

   

September 2026

• 13 September – Sweden: General election fixed for Sunday 13 September 2026.

   

• September (day TBC) – Morocco: Next House of Representatives election is due in September 2026 under the regular five-year cycle, but the precise polling date has not yet been announced.

   

October 2026

• 4 October – Brazil: General elections (president, National Congress, governors and state assemblies) scheduled for 4 October 2026, with a presidential and gubernatorial runoff on 25 October if required.

   

• By 27 October – Israel (Knesset): The next Knesset election must be held no later than 27 October 2026; the coalition may choose any date before then, but autumn 2026 is the working assumption.

   

• By 31 October – Denmark: General election must be held by 31 October 2026 under the Danish four-year term limit; most observers expect an autumn poll, but no date has been selected.

   

November 2026

• 3 November – United States (midterms): US midterm elections on Tuesday 3 November 2026 for all House seats, one-third of the Senate, and a large slate of governors and state-level offices.

   

December 2026

• By 19 December – New Zealand: The next general election must be held on or before 19 December 2026; the exact date will be announced closer to the time (recent practice would suggest a November or early-December poll).

   

• 22 December – South Sudan: Long-delayed general elections are now scheduled for 22 December 2026, following a two-year postponement from 2024.

   

Date TBC but expected in 2026 (no firm month yet)

• Bangladesh – General election (early 2026 window): After the collapse of the previous government, interlocutors and international reporting point to a new national election in the December 2025–June 2026 window; an exact 2026 date has not yet been fixed.

   

What compliance teams should do now

2026 will be a pivotal year in global political realignment. Organisations should begin preparing by mapping key jurisdictions where upcoming elections may influence policy direction, regulatory enforcement or operational risk. Scenario planning should be built into compliance frameworks, especially for areas such as sanctions, ESG reporting, labour regulation, AML/CTF expectations and digital-governance standards.

A proactive approach enables compliance teams to respond quickly to political outcomes, ensuring that policies, controls, training and monitoring mechanisms remain aligned with emerging requirements.

Join our compliance trends 2026 webinar and find out what should be on your agenda. 10 December 2025 at midday UK